05
Feb
2008
CURRENT AS OF Feb 5th, 2008
Summary
MLS Active Listings |
Looks like we’ve hit the peak for listings coming onto the market. There may be some seasonality related to this, but I think overall the total number of listings are going to be dropping somewhat. Notice the momentum lines have crossed each other, and are slowing their downward trend, almost to a flat line. This could indicate an overall drop in listings for the upcoming year. |
MLS Solds |
Looks like we’re in a downward trend here. There’s definitely some seasonal factors playing in to this chart, as we’re at the slowest time of the year to sell a house. Feb charts should give us some good indications for the upcoming year. |
Avg Sale Price
|
Still seeing a decline in the Avg Sales price- remember, this is for Dec 2007, folks. |
Median Sale Price |
Median Sales price doesn’t seem to be dropping as drastically as it was previously. It’s still coming to a slowdown, sitting at an 8.1% drop from last year. I’m anxious to see Jan/Feb of 2008’s charts to give us a better idea of the upcoming year. |
Average Days on Market |
This is to be expected this time of year. Sitting at just above 100 days on market isn’t all that bad for the year end. However, notice the severe drop in the trend lines- this indicates a change is on the horizon. Since the trend is upward in direction, we can expect it to reverse and start giving us a lower Days on Market for the County. |
Absorption |
As predicted earlier, absorption rates are declining now, which is surprising for the 4th Quarter of a year. Momentum lines are fairly flat, so predicting future direction is difficult. |
Building Permits
|
Very odd results going on here. Obviously there’s a decline in the number of permits. However, check out the momentum readings. They’re in opposite directions (remember, one reads ‘faster’ than the other). Taking into consideration the overall directional trend of the data, I would think Building Permits will flat line over the next few months (meaning, remain steady) until the Summer. |
Mortgage Defaults |
Still climbing! There’s a ton more ARM’s adjusting now, and the difficulty in the mortgage market is helping defaults hit record highs. Less mortgage programs means less options for homeowners to refi out, or, buyer’s to purchase homes in foreclosure. We won’t see a slowdown or change in this until the Mortgage Industry turns things around. |
Trustee’s Deeds |
Still sky rocketing here. I’m not surprised, as the Lender’s still haven’t figured out how to deal with all these foreclosures. You’ll notice, the momentum lines are slowing slightly- which, I expect a change in direction sometime in Summer 2008. I am guessing it’ll take the lenders that long to figure out how to work out Short Sales effectively. |
Investor Activity |
We’re heading back to the baseline of Investor Activity. The average for our market, in other words. All the wannabe investors have run back to their IRAs and stocks- as they’re losing their homes to foreclosure now. All the guys who know what they’re doing (the smart ones!) are coming back into the market now, snagging all these great deals we have available to us. Momentum is coming to a plateau, which means it’ll remain steady for investor activity. No flood of new investors, and no loss of seasoned investors. |
Interest Rates |
Still not the most exciting of charts- however, the faster Momentum line (the pink one) is just barely crossing over the zero line. With the politics going on right now, I believe we’ll continue to see interest rates drop until we get the mortgage markets back on track. |
